News

A Great August for Rare Coins

08
Sep

COIN MARKET INSIDER • VOLUME 33 • ISSUE 40

RECAPPING A GREAT AUGUST FOR RARE COINS

As we have reported previously, August was a great month in the rare coin market with many coins setting records at auction and the American Numismatic Association (ANA) convention was extremely active.

Given that the summer is ordinarily a slower period in the rare coin market and more auctions and coin conventions are slated for September and well into the autumn, there is ample reason to believe that the rare coin market will continue to perform well for the foreseeable future.

One of the leading independent coin grading and certification services is Numismatic Guaranty Corporation (NGC). They have certified and graded literally millions of rare coins over a period of some 30 years.

NGC also does a good job of tracking the coin market and reporting on its progress. They have recently turned in two reports on US and World coins that describe a great time in the coin market during August…

Report on US Coins

Nineteen NGC-certified coins realized six figures each in the August auction. A Double Eagle Realizes More than $500,000 in Heritage Sale. The rarity was one of 19 NGC-graded coins that realized six-figure prices in the ANA US Coins Signature Auction held August 15-20, 2023.

The top lot was a 1907 Liberty $20 graded NGC PF 67 Cameo realized $504,000. The high-grade Liberty Double Eagle certified by Numismatic Guaranty Company (NGC) realized more than half a million dollars in a recent Heritage Auctions sale.

In addition, an 1800 Gold Washington Funeral-Skull Medal graded NGC MS 63 realized $372,000. It previously realized $276,000 in an auction of Patrick Collection rarities in January 2021.

Other NGC-certified coins that sold for six figures in this auction included:

  • 1795 $10 graded NGC MS 63 realized $264,000.
  • 1858 $5 graded NGC PF 67 Ultra Cameo (Trompeter collection) realized $252,000.
  • 1807 B-2 Quarter graded NGC MS 66★ (Newman & Green collections) realized $252,000.
  • 1909-O Indian $5 graded NGC MS 65 realized $252,000.
  • 1861-S Paquet $20 graded NGC AU 58 realized $240,000.
  • 1854-S $2.5 graded NGC VF 30 realized $222,000.
  • 1907 High Relief Wire Rim $20 graded NGC MS 67+★ realized b.
  • 1907 High Relief Wire Rim $20 graded NGC PF 67 realized $192,000.
  • 1849 Mormon $20 graded NGC XF 40 realized $168,000.
  • 1907 High Relief Flat Rim $20 graded NGC MS 67 realized $150,000.
  • 1915-S Panama-Pacific Octagonal $50 graded NGC MS 65+ realized $138,000.
  • 1915-S Panama-Pacific Round $50 graded NGC MS 65+ realized $138,000.
  • 1882 $20 graded NGC AU 55 realized $126,000.
  • 1797 Small Eagle 15 Stars $5 graded NGC AU 53 realized $117,000.
  • 1857-O $20 graded NGC MS 62+ realized $117,000.
  • 1852-O $20 graded NGC MS 63 realized $111,000.
  • 1870-CC $10 graded NGC XF 40 realized $102,000.

Report on World Coins

At the ANA World & Ancient Coins Platinum Session and Signature Auction on August 17, 2023, a trio of English rarities were among 22 NGC-graded coins that each realized six figures.

The top lot was the England 1492 Henry VII Gold Sovereign graded NGC AU 50, which realized $795,000, well above its $500,000 pre-auction estimate.

Two examples of the Great Britain 1839 Una and the Lion 5 Sovereign each realized more than $400,000, including one graded NGC PF 64 Ultra Cameo realized $420,000.

Other NGC-certified coins that sold for six figures in this auction included:

  • Great Britain 1839 Una & the Lion 5 Sovereign graded NGC PF 63+ Ultra Cameo realized $408,000.
  • England 1643 Charles I Triple Unite graded NGC MS 64 (Gilhousen Collection) realized $240,000.
  • Japan M9 (1876) 20 Yen graded NGC MS 64 DPL realized $198,000.
  • France 1832 Gold Piefort Essai 5 Francs NGC PF 64 UC (Paramount Collection) realized $192,020.
  • France 1870A 100 Francs graded NGC AU 53 realized $192,000.
  • Great Britain 2019 Una & the Lion 2 Kg Gold 2,000 lb NGC Proof 69 Ultra Cameo realized $192,000.
  • Germany (1749) Regensburg 8 Ducat graded NGC MS 61 realized $168,000.
  • Great Britain 1819 Sovereign graded NGC VF 30 realized $156,000.
  • Bosporus, Panticapaeum (c.340-320 BC) Gold Stater NGC MS realized $144,000.
  • Great Britain 1713 5 Guineas graded NGC MS 61 realized $144,000.
  • Germany 1739 Bavaria 10 Ducat NGC AU 58 (Paramount Collection) realized $132,000.
  • France 1894A Gold 100 Francs graded NGC MS 64★ realized $132,000.
  • Roman Empire Claudius, AD 41-54 Gold Aureus NGC MS★ realized $132,000.
  • Great Britain 1709 5 Guineas graded NGC AU 58+ realized $132,000.
  • Germany 1661 Munster 6 Ducat graded NGC MS 63+ realized $114,000.
  • Ptolemaic Kingdom, Ptolemy I (323-282 BC) Gold Stater NGC Ch AU★ realized $108,000.
  • Spain 1895(95) PGV 5 Pesetas NGC SP 62 and pedigreed as the Calico Plate coin realized $108,000.
  • Germany 1698 Nurnberg 6 Ducat graded NGC MS 62+ realized $108,000.
  • Colombia 1755NR 8 Escudos graded NGC XF 45 realized $102,000.
  • Ireland (1646) Gold “Ormonde” Pistole graded NGC XF 45 realized $102,000.

Auction Review

Even a cursory examination of these two lists of results shows that the strong performance in the rare coin market is broad-based, extending across gold, silver, and non-precious metals coins. The strength also obviously includes US coins and world coins from areas as diverse as Japan, Colombia, and several European nations. Moreover, the results also significantly include ancient coins from the Roman Empire.

STAGFLATION AND A DECLINING STOCK MARKET AHEAD

Economists and Financial Analysts see Stagflation and a declining Stock Market ahead. More and more experts are concerned about the state of the US and world economy and the vulnerability of the frothy stock market.

Euro Pacific Asset Management chief economist Peter Schiff says that the Fed has failed in controlling inflation and adds that the economy is also weak. In other words, Stagflation…

Latest economic data shows Fed ‘not making any progress’ on inflation: ‘It’s a real mess,’ expert warns. PCE, August jobs report among the data showing the US economy is ‘weak.’

Despite the Federal Reserve’s attempt to combat crippling inflation, one expert argued the latest jobs report and inflation data indicate the central bank is “not making any progress” in achieving its target of 2% inflation.

“It shows that the Fed is not making any progress in its inflation fight because consumers keep spending and reducing their savings in spite of the rate hikes,” Euro Pacific Asset Management chief economist Peter Schiff told Fox News Digital.

At the same time, a separate report based on a survey of households offered a slightly different picture of the labor market. The report indicated that the unemployment rate climbed to 3.8% from 3.5% as the labor force participation rate rose to a nearly three-year high. It marked the highest jobless rate since February 2022 and the biggest increase since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The uptick in unemployment is a sign of weakness

The report also contained sharp downward revisions to job growth earlier this summer. Gains for June and July were revised down by a total of 110,000 jobs to a respective 105,000 and 157,000, the government said, suggesting that the labor market is weaker than it previously appeared.

Peter Schiff pointed out the jobs report is “a continuation of what’s been going on all year.”

“This is the seventh consecutive downward revision to the prior month. And they’re not small revisions. They’re significant,” he stressed.

Schiff predicted the August jobs number will be the “eighth consecutive time” the Labor Department readjusts its data.

“This is stagflation,” he said. “The economy is weakening, the labor market is weakening, but consumer prices are strengthening.”

Other highly regarded financial and economic experts have similar views

Nouriel Roubini, Mohamed El-Erian and Joseph Stiglitz all predict stagflation and declining stocks ahead.

This equity decline is expected if the global economy begins weakening, said Nouriel Roubini.

Mohamed El-Erian said investors have become too fixated on each economic statistic without seeing the bigger picture.

The threat of stagflation concerns Nobel Prize-winner Joseph Stiglitz.

Nouriel Roubini warned of a potential over-valuation in stocks.

“Markets probably rally too much today, and that’s maybe going to lead to a correction in the second half of the year if the economic data is still weak and central banks have to hike a little bit more,” he said. “A 10% correction is not totally unlikely if the economy starts to soften up globally, and if you have still inflation that is essentially above target.”

CHINA GOES ON GOLD BUYING SPREE

In August, China bought 29 tonnes of gold, stretching its precious metal buying spree to 10 months.

China’s appetite for gold remains insatiable as the nation’s central bank added more of the precious metal to its foreign reserves for the tenth consecutive month.

According to updated foreign reserve data, the People’s Bank of China bought 29 tonnes of gold in August, lifting year-to-date purchases to 155 tonnes. Last month’s data was also the central bank’s biggest purchase since December.

The PBOC has been the leading central bank in the gold market. And its current buying spree has matched its previous 10-month run that ended in September 2019.

Looking ahead, many analysts said that they expect China to continue to buy gold as it strengthens the yuan’s international credibility to compete with the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

This scramble away from the U.S. dollar is not going to end anytime soon.

It is expected that China will remain a long-term gold buyer as part of the bigger de-dollarization trend. There is a real effort to diversify away from the U.S. dollar and when you start looking for other assets, you don’t have a lot of options other than gold.

There are no political risks with gold, which is becoming very important.

It’s been recently predicted that the gold market could hit $2,600 as U.S. dollar index falls below 104. Analysts note that Central Bank gold demand is a significant factor behind gold’s resilience as the U.S. dollar index trades near a six-month high at 105 points. At the same time, U.S. 10-year bond yields continue to hold near 16-year highs above 4.2%.

What gold prices need to go higher is for global growth to slow down and bond yields to move lower.